{"id":2823,"date":"2014-04-03T11:26:29","date_gmt":"2014-04-03T09:26:29","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/markert.hu\/wordpress\/?p=2823"},"modified":"2014-04-03T14:27:14","modified_gmt":"2014-04-03T12:27:14","slug":"pszichologia-es-a-penzugyi-valsag","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/markert.hu\/wordpress\/?p=2823","title":{"rendered":"Pszichol\u00f3gia \u00e9s a p\u00e9nz\u00fcgyi v\u00e1ls\u00e1g"},"content":{"rendered":"

Cour\u00adse\u00adr\u00e1n hall\u00adga\u00adtok most egy kur\u00adzust, igen amb\u00ed\u00adci\u00ad\u00f3\u00adzu\u00adsan mind\u00ad\u00f6ssze az a c\u00edme, hogy Finan\u00adcial Mar\u00adkets<\/a>. Gya\u00adkor\u00adla\u00adti\u00adlag min\u00adden\u00adr\u0151l sz\u00f3l, amit p\u00e9nz\u00adpi\u00ada\u00adcok alatt \u00e9rte\u00adni lehet, \u00e9rt\u00e9k\u00adpa\u00adp\u00ed\u00adrok, ban\u00adkok, sza\u00adb\u00e1\u00adlyo\u00adz\u00e1s, ingat\u00adla\u00adnok, b\u00e1r\u00admi, amit venni\/eladni lehet. N\u00e9h\u00e1ny h\u00e9t ut\u00e1n esett csak le, hogy a pro\u00adfesszor b\u00e1csi (Robert J. Schil\u00adler<\/a>), aki tart\u00adja az eg\u00e9\u00adszet, nem egy t\u00fal nagy kopo\u00adnya, tavaly p\u00e9l\u00add\u00e1\u00adul meg\u00adkap\u00adta a k\u00f6z\u00adgaz\u00adda\u00ads\u00e1\u00adgi Nobel-d\u00edjat<\/a>.<\/p>\n

Egy sz\u00f3 mint sz\u00e1z, a kur\u00adzus maga igen j\u00f3, a tan\u00e1r pedig igen hite\u00adles. M\u00e1r kicsit b\u00e1nom, hogy nem fogad\u00adtam meg Regi tan\u00e1\u00adcs\u00e1t, hogy kap\u00adjak r\u00f3la hiva\u00adta\u00adlos certificate-et.<\/p>\n

De nem is ez a l\u00e9nyeg.<\/p>\n

P\u00e1r hete volt egy \u00e9rde\u00adkes h\u00e1zi fel\u00adadat. Egy r\u00f6vid, tizen\u00adegy\u00adn\u00e9\u00adh\u00e1ny olda\u00adlas paper<\/em> (p\u00e9p\u00f6r, pap\u00adper) alap\u00adj\u00e1n kel\u00adlett \u00edrni egy max. 500 sza\u00advas essz\u00e9t, amit azt\u00e1n az osz\u00adt\u00e1ly\u00adt\u00e1r\u00adsak \u00e9rt\u00e9\u00adkel\u00adtek. Mivel 10\/10<\/strong>-et kap\u00adtam r\u00e1, \u00fagy gon\u00addol\u00adtam, hogy ide rakom, mert ilyen nagy siker\u00adben nem volt r\u00e9szem a dip\u00adlo\u00adma\u00adv\u00e9\u00add\u00e9s \u00f3ta (az \u00d3bu\u00addai Egye\u00adtem nyil\u00adv\u00e1n nem sz\u00e1m\u00edt).<\/p>\n

A cikk: Nic\u00adho\u00adlas Bar\u00adbe\u00adris: Psy\u00adcho\u00adlogy and the Finan\u00adcial Cris\u00adis of 2007\u20132008<\/a><\/p>\n

Az essz\u00e9m:<\/p>\n

Mr. Bar\u00adbe\u00adris\u2019 paper is focus\u00ading on three aspects of the cris\u00adis: the sur\u00adge in hou\u00adse pri\u00adces, bank\u2019s lar\u00adge posit\u00adions in sub\u00adp\u00adri\u00adme lin\u00adked secu\u00adri\u00adti\u00ades; and the dec\u00adline in value of many risk asset clas\u00adses. To study tho\u00adse, he is using psy\u00adcho\u00adlogy-bas\u00aded mechan\u00adisms, espe\u00adci\u00adally over-ext\u00adra\u00adpo\u00adla\u00adti\u00adon of past pri\u00adce changes; and beli\u00adef manipulation.<\/p>\n

The sur\u00adge in hous\u00ading pri\u00adces, as Mr. Bar\u00adbe\u00adris expla\u00adins, was pro\u00adba\u00adbly cau\u00ads\u00aded by the abo\u00adve ment\u00adion\u00aded over-ext\u00adra\u00adpo\u00adla\u00adti\u00adon: fore\u00adcast is using expe\u00adri\u00aden\u00adce from the past, but the samp\u00adle is too small, and the fore\u00adcast is rea\u00adch\u00ading too far into the futu\u00adre. In case of hous\u00ading pri\u00adces, this hap\u00adpe\u00adned in many dif\u00adfe\u00adrent cas\u00ades. Buyers paid too much for the hou\u00adse, beca\u00adu\u00adse they tho\u00adught it will worth much more in the futu\u00adre. Len\u00adders, who are pro\u00advi\u00adding the money for the purc\u00adha\u00adse, were also over-ext\u00adra\u00adpo\u00adlat\u00ading the pri\u00adces, so they lent more than they sho\u00aduld. They could do that, beca\u00adu\u00adse the\u00adse sub\u00adp\u00adri\u00adme loans were very att\u00adrac\u00adtive to inves\u00adtors, who bought the secu\u00adri\u00adti\u00adzed pro\u00adducts beca\u00adu\u00adse they over-ext\u00adra\u00adpo\u00adla\u00adted the hous\u00ading pri\u00adces. And the att\u00adrac\u00adti\u00adve\u00adness of the\u00adse secu\u00adri\u00adti\u00ades was pro\u00advi\u00added by rat\u00ading orga\u00adni\u00adza\u00adtions, who were over-ext\u00adra\u00adpo\u00adlat\u00ading the inc\u00adre\u00ada\u00adse of pri\u00adces aga\u00adin. As a result, more people were able to spend more money on over-valu\u00aded hous\u00ades then desirable.<\/p>\n

The lar\u00adge posit\u00adions in sub\u00adp\u00adri\u00adme-lin\u00adked secu\u00adri\u00adti\u00ades that many banks had accu\u00admu\u00adla\u00adted, as it is writ\u00adten in the paper, could be cau\u00ads\u00aded by beli\u00adef mani\u00adpu\u00adla\u00adti\u00adon. First of all, the mortgage tra\u00adders might mani\u00adpu\u00adla\u00adted the\u00adir beli\u00adefs to remo\u00adve the\u00adir dis\u00adso\u00adnance, which was cau\u00ads\u00aded by the\u00adir tho\u00adughts abo\u00adut sub\u00adp\u00adri\u00adme-lin\u00adked secu\u00adri\u00adti\u00ades being very ris\u00adky. The same beli\u00adef mani\u00adpu\u00adla\u00adti\u00adon could pro\u00adba\u00adbly hap\u00adpen at cre\u00addit risk agen\u00adci\u00ades. Everyone wan\u00adted the\u00adse assets to have low risk, and when analysts were eva\u00adluat\u00ading the risk of the\u00adse pro\u00adducts, cal\u00adcu\u00adlat\u00ading a high risk might cau\u00ads\u00aded dis\u00adso\u00adnance in them. To sol\u00adve that, beli\u00adef mani\u00adpu\u00adla\u00adti\u00adon hel\u00adped them to think that the\u00adse secu\u00adri\u00adti\u00ades were not so risky.<\/p>\n

The dra\u00adma\u00adtic dec\u00adline in value of many ris\u00adky asset clas\u00adses is expla\u00adined with two psy\u00adcho\u00adlog\u00adi\u00adcal amp\u00adli\u00adfi\u00adca\u00adti\u00adon mechan\u00adisms, loss avers\u00adion and ambi\u00adgu\u00adity avers\u00adion. Loss avers\u00adion, when we are tal\u00adking abo\u00adut the sub\u00adp\u00adri\u00adme mortgage cris\u00adis, means that when inves\u00adtors star\u00adted to lose money beca\u00adu\u00adse of dec\u00adre\u00ada\u00adse of hous\u00ading pri\u00adces, they wan\u00adted to get a rid of other ris\u00adky assets. This cau\u00ads\u00aded pri\u00adce reduc\u00adti\u00adon not just for mortgage bac\u00adked secu\u00adri\u00adti\u00ades, but also other ris\u00adky pro\u00adducts. Ambi\u00adgu\u00adity avers\u00adion means that when the hous\u00ading pri\u00adces were fal\u00adling, inves\u00adtors tho\u00adught that they are less com\u00adpe\u00adtent as they were not for\u00adese\u00ade\u00ading this hap\u00adpe\u00adning. Beca\u00adu\u00adse of that, they were sel\u00adl\u00ading the\u00adse pro\u00adducts, as they wan\u00adted to redu\u00adce the\u00adir risk in assets they didn\u2019t under\u00adstand so well any\u00admo\u00adre. Also, losing com\u00adpe\u00adtency could also cau\u00adse losing self-con\u00adfi\u00adden\u00adce, which could cau\u00adse the same hap\u00adpe\u00adning for other assets.<\/p>\n

Bes\u00adide many other rea\u00adsons, it is pos\u00adsib\u00adle that psy\u00adcho\u00adlog\u00adi\u00adcal fac\u00adtors were also play\u00ading a big role in the finan\u00adcial cris\u00adis. To pre\u00advent a cris\u00adis in the futu\u00adre, it is impor\u00adtant to work on both ins\u00adti\u00adtu\u00adti\u00ado\u00adnal and psy\u00adcho\u00adlog\u00adi\u00adcal changes.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Cour\u00adse\u00adr\u00e1n hall\u00adga\u00adtok most egy kur\u00adzust, igen amb\u00ed\u00adci\u00ad\u00f3\u00adzu\u00adsan mind\u00ad\u00f6ssze az a c\u00edme, hogy Finan\u00adcial Mar\u00adkets. Gya\u00adkor\u00adla\u00adti\u00adlag min\u00adden\u00adr\u0151l sz\u00f3l, amit p\u00e9nz\u00adpi\u00ada\u00adcok alatt \u00e9rte\u00adni lehet, \u00e9rt\u00e9k\u00adpa\u00adp\u00ed\u00adrok, ban\u00adkok, sza\u00adb\u00e1\u00adlyo\u00adz\u00e1s, ingat\u00adla\u00adnok, b\u00e1r\u00admi, amit venni\/eladni lehet. N\u00e9h\u00e1ny h\u00e9t ut\u00e1n esett csak le, hogy a pro\u00adfesszor b\u00e1csi (Robert J. Schil\u00adler), aki tart\u00adja az eg\u00e9\u00adszet, nem egy t\u00fal nagy kopo\u00adnya, tavaly p\u00e9l\u00add\u00e1\u00adul megkapta [\u2026]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"wp_typography_post_enhancements_disabled":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[22,10],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-2823","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-penz","category-politika"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/markert.hu\/wordpress\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2823","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/markert.hu\/wordpress\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/markert.hu\/wordpress\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/markert.hu\/wordpress\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/markert.hu\/wordpress\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=2823"}],"version-history":[{"count":5,"href":"https:\/\/markert.hu\/wordpress\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2823\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":2828,"href":"https:\/\/markert.hu\/wordpress\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2823\/revisions\/2828"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/markert.hu\/wordpress\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=2823"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/markert.hu\/wordpress\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=2823"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/markert.hu\/wordpress\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=2823"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}